Fuel prices have been dominating the conversation in boardrooms, logistics offices, and around the servo forecourt for weeks now. But the more important question for Australian businesses isn’t what’s happening today. It’s what happens over the remainder of FY2025/26 — and what FY2026/27 is going to look like.

The short answer from Australia’s leading economists: the volatility isn’t going away quickly, the downstream impacts are broader than most businesses have modelled, and the businesses that act now will be in a materially better position than those waiting for the market to settle.

Here’s what the data actually says — and what it means for your freight spend.

Sources: NAB Forward View March 2026; Commonwealth Bank Economics; Treasury modelling via Synergy Freight; Transport Intelligence

What Australia’s Leading Economists Are Actually Forecasting

Commonwealth Bank: Growth Slowing, Inflation Sticky

Commonwealth Bank economists have revised their outlook materially following the sustained energy shock. Their central forecast sees Australian economic growth easing to around 1.6 per cent by late 2026 — a significant step down from earlier projections. The CBA analysis points to higher energy costs flowing through to transport, freight, packaging, and food production as the key transmission channels.

The CBA has also flagged that the growth in real household disposable income — income above inflation, interest, and tax — is expected to slow sharply. That means consumer spending, which drives freight volumes for many of Clique’s customers, is likely to remain subdued well into FY2026/27. Unemployment is expected to drift toward 4.6 per cent by early 2027.

On interest rates, CBA economists expect cuts in 2027 as inflation moderates — but relief is not imminent.

Source: Commonwealth Bank Economics, March 2026

NAB: Inflation Peaking Around 5%, More Rate Rises Likely

NAB’s Forward View paints a similar picture, with underlying inflation forecast to peak at around 3.5 per cent year-on-year, with headline CPI pushing close to 5 per cent in Q2 2026 — driven significantly by fuel. NAB expects a further RBA cash rate increase of 25 basis points in May, taking rates to 4.35 per cent and keeping financial conditions tight.

NAB notes that the economy entered 2026 in reasonable shape but that the speed of the current energy shock is having a faster and more direct impact than previous disruptions. Growth has been revised down to approximately 1.8 per cent for both 2026 and 2027, with unemployment peaking at around 4.75 per cent by end of 2026.

“The size of the shock is significant, but hard to quantify, and there are very real risks of a more material hit to growth than we have reflected in our baseline forecasts.” — NAB Forward View, March 2026

Source: NAB Forward View Australia, March 2026

Westpac and Treasury: The Inflation Ceiling Is Higher Than It Looks

Westpac economists have flagged that headline inflation could reach 5.5 per cent year-on-year by mid-2026 if fuel prices sustain at current levels. That would represent the highest sustained inflation reading Australia has seen in decades — and would further complicate the RBA’s path back toward its 2-3 per cent target band.

Treasury modelling is even more sobering for the longer-term outlook. A prolonged oil shock — one that persists rather than resolves — could reduce Australian GDP in 2027 by 0.6 per cent or more. In a $2.7 trillion economy, that’s a meaningful contraction in the economic environment that businesses are operating in.

Sources: Westpac Economics; Treasury modelling via Synergy Freight, April 2026

The ACCC Stat Every Freight Shipper Should Know

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has quantified the direct link between diesel prices and freight costs: every one cent per litre rise in diesel pushes freight rates up approximately 0.25 per cent — with the most pronounced effect across Australia’s long east-west linehaul routes.

Diesel is currently sitting 30 to 50 per cent above pre-conflict levels depending on the market and region. Do the maths on that 0.25 per cent rule, and you can see why fuel surcharges on some lanes have moved faster than most businesses budgeted for.

Source: ACCC, 2025 / Transport Works analysis, January 2026

What This Means Specifically for Your Freight Spend

Surcharges Are Just the First Visible Layer

For businesses with significant domestic freight spend, the fuel shock shows up first and most visibly as fuel surcharges. Major freight operators have flagged surcharge increases of 15 to 20 per cent above contracted levels, on top of a base that’s already been elevated.

But the surcharge line item is only the beginning. For a national distributor or manufacturer where freight represents 3 to 8 per cent of cost of goods sold, a 15 to 20 per cent increase in freight costs adds 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points directly onto COGS. On tight retail or wholesale margins, that’s not a rounding error — it’s a structural margin problem.

Source: Trace Consultants, April 2026

The Quoting Environment Has Fundamentally Changed

One of the less-discussed operational impacts of sustained fuel volatility is what it does to the freight procurement process. Carriers who previously provided rate validity of two to four weeks are now issuing quotes with validity windows of 48 to 72 hours. That’s commercially rational from the carrier’s perspective — they can’t hold a rate when diesel is moving daily.

But for businesses running procurement processes that take longer than a week, it effectively renders the traditional approach meaningless. If your freight buying process assumes stable rates over a procurement cycle, that assumption needs to be revisited.

FY2026/27 Budget Planning Is the Immediate Risk

Here’s the planning problem that many businesses haven’t yet confronted: FY2026/27 budgets are being set right now. If those budgets use freight cost assumptions based on pre-shock rates, or even current surcharge levels without modelling continued volatility, they are almost certainly undercooked.

CBA and NAB both project that the broader inflationary environment — of which freight is a significant component — will remain elevated through FY2026/27 before easing conditions potentially emerge in 2027. Building a budget scenario that doesn’t account for sustained freight cost pressure through the year ahead is a risk that will be difficult to explain mid-year.

The businesses best positioned for FY2026/27 are those building freight cost scenarios into their planning now — not adjusting forecasts when the surcharge notices arrive in July.

What Companies Should Be Doing Right Now

The economic outlook is what it is — no single business can control the oil price, the AUD/USD rate, or the geopolitical dynamics driving the current situation. What businesses can control is how well-positioned they are to navigate it. Here’s a prioritised action framework:

The Structural Play: Move from Reactive to Managed

The businesses absorbing the current volatility worst are those operating reactively — single carrier arrangements, minimal spend visibility, no benchmarked rate data, and no consolidation in how they manage freight. Every one of those characteristics amplifies exposure when the market moves.

Moving even one stage along the freight management maturity curve — from reactive to managed — materially changes how much of this volatility lands on your P&L versus gets managed proactively. That means multi-carrier capability, consolidated spend data, regular benchmarking, and a freight partner whose job is to optimise your position continuously — not just when you raise a problem.

The economic outlook makes it clear that the window for getting your freight setup right before this hurts isn’t infinite. The businesses making those moves now will have a structural cost advantage through FY2026/27 and beyond.

Fuel is a market force. Your freight setup is a business decision. The first one you can’t control. The second one you absolutely can.

The Outlook in Plain Terms

For the remainder of FY2025/26 — through to 30 June 2026 — the weight of expert opinion points to continued elevated fuel costs, ongoing surcharge pressure, and an inflationary environment that keeps freight costs materially above the pre-2026 baseline. Some moderation may occur if geopolitical conditions improve, but that remains uncertain and unhedged.

For FY2026/27, the picture is one of gradual moderation — not rapid relief. CBA, NAB, and Westpac all project that the broader inflationary environment eases through the year, with more meaningful rate relief potentially available in late 2027. But elevated freight costs are likely to be a feature of at least the first half of the new financial year, and possibly longer.

The practical implication: budget conservatively, act structurally, and don’t wait for the market to settle before making improvements to your freight setup.

About Clique Logistics

Clique Logistics is a carrier-agnostic freight management partner for Australian businesses spending $500K or more on domestic freight annually. We work with manufacturers, distributors, and wholesalers who want to move freight from a reactive cost centre to a strategic advantage.

We manage multiple carriers through a single platform, audit every invoice against agreed rate cards, and provide the visibility and benchmarking data that helps businesses make smarter freight decisions in any market — especially volatile ones.

cliquelogistics.com.au  |  (08) 8443 8213  |  58B Greenhill Road, Wayville SA 5034